[ORyoungbirder] Some thoughts on next Oregon bird results !

Sun Nov 11 18:49:43 PST 2007

Greetings All,

First I want to thank Alan for compiling all our predictions.  I've been referred to as many things, but never a "bellweather."  In making these types of predictions, I try to use a few basic critieria.  Note: These criteria offer a common sense approach to making predictions, but will likely prove quite inaccurate when compared to what we actually find.

1.  Level of Expectability -- Are there records for nearby states?  If so, are they recent records or in close proximity to Oregon borders?  Three of my predicted species, Black Vulture, Yellow-Green Vireo and Black Skimmer, fit this criteria well. These three species have occurred in Humboldt County,  CA two or more times in the past 5-10 years.  My other two picks, Siberian Accentor and White-eyed Vireo, have also occurred in proximity to Oregon.  Siberian Accentor has us surrounded with records from Washington, Idaho, Nevada and California as well as multiple records from British Columbia.  White-eyed Vireo has occurred many times in California.

2.  Ease of Identification -- I think there is a direct correlation between ease of ID and detectability.  Many rarities are initially discovered by comparatively casual birders who see a bird they don't recognize and then report it.  Among my choices, Black Skimmer is probably at the top of the "what is that strange looking bird?" list.  Black Vulture also falls into this category.  Siberian Accentor is also a relatively unique looking bird and many of the records for the western U.S. have involved feeder birds.  White-eyed Vireo is a straight-forward ID for modestly experienced birders, but would probably go unnoticed by a casual birder.  One factor in including White-eyed Vireo was their instantly recognizable song.  "chick-adeedle-chick" sounds like nothing else.  Yellow-Green Vireo would not be an easy ID.

3.  Ease of Detectability -- Birds that are nocturnal, crepuscular, or highly secretive can border on undetectable unless one knows exactly where and when to look.  Until recent decades Yellow Rail and Boreal Owl were known from Oregon solely on the basis of nearly century old specimens and there was speculation that the Oregon Boreal Owl specimen was mislabeled.  As we know now, these birds are regularly occur in Oregon and they can be heard fairly readily if one knows where to go at night.  One bird that is long-overdue in Oregon is Nelson's Sharp-tailed Sparrow.  This species winters annually along the central California coast, but it is very secretive and inhabits expansive saltmarshes that can be tough to access.  They are rarely detected except during extreme high tides that push them near dry land.  Among my predicted species, Black Skimmer and Black Vulture are decidedly diurnal and unsecretive.  The two vireos would likely show up at a vagrant trap inhabited by observers keen on finding such birds.  As mentioned above, Siberian Accentors often show up at feeders.

There were several species in Alan's master list that I think will be very tough finds in Oregon because they fly in the face of the above criteria.  Here are some prime examples.

Cassin's Sparrow -- This very drab species (no slam dunk ID) is most likely to occur out in the middle southeastern Oregon's high desert sitting on a phone line or fence wire.  How many of us stop to check every sparrow we see along deserted eastern Oregon byways?  Talk about searching for a needle in a haystack.

Cerulean Warbler -- Sadly, I seriously doubt this species will ever occur in Oregon.  Their population is plummeting and they are tough to find even in their home range.  There are a few records for California (about 13), but I don't there have been any in recent years.  Jon Dunn and Kimball Garrett, note this is among the rarest eastern vagrants to reach California and the only one which is showing a decreasing pattern of occurrence, despite ever increasing observer effort (Warblers 1997).  

Temminck's Stint -- The only nearby record of this species is the Ocean Shores, WA bird from two (?) years ago.  Additionally, there is a relatively small pool of birders who are looking closely at small Calidrids, and an even smaller pool who would recognize this bird if they saw one.

Henslow's Sparrow -- This species strikes out on all fronts.  As of 1997 there were no records of this species in California, and I don't recall hearing of one since.  To my knowledge there are no west coast records of this species.  Secondly, it is very secretive bird that is fairly tough to ID.

Baird's Sparrow -- As of 1997 there were just three accepted California records.  While it is slightly more likely to occur (based on history) than Henslow's, it is just as secretive and a more difficult ID.   

It is important to remember that California records severely skew our perceptions about what is likely in Oregon.  The outer coast of California is significantly less vegetated than the Oregon coast and there are several points and penninsulas that have isolated patches of trees that create natural vagrant traps.  Cape Blanco, which gets very little coverage (other than Terry Wahl) is the only Oregon site that mimics this type of situation.  Also, Southeast Farallon, which has a permanent banding station, contributes a disproportionate number of all vagrants that occur in California.  Many of these birds would go undetected if not for this isolated island 18 miles off San Francisco, which has a little patch of trees surrounded by mist nets during the migration seasons.  

The most important factor is coverage.  The Oregon coast has maybe 20 birders who are regularly out pounding the local patches for odd shorebirds, pelagics and landbirds.  Imagine if Oregon had 40 Tim Rodenkirks, a couple dozen Phil Pickerings, Russ Namitzes, David Baileys and 20+ Mike Pattersons, Wayne Hoffmans, Diane Petteys and Cindy Ashys who were out there multiple days every week.  During the course of doing my Lane Co. big year, I've spent more than 25 days birding the Oregon coast, but this is an anomaly for me.  Surely, no other Willamette Valley birder has spent this much time on the coast this year and I will probably never do it again, at least until I'm retired.  However, even if you added up all these fictitional birders it would not begin to compare with the observer effort and talent pool that exists along the outer California coast.  

Here is my list as reported to Alan:

1. White-eyed Vireo

2. Siberian Accentor

3. Black Vulture

4. Yellow-green Vireo

5. Black Skimmer

Dave Irons

----------------------------------------
> Date: Sun, 11 Nov 2007 13:46:24 -0800
> From: acontrer at MINDSPRING.COM
> To: obol at lists.oregonstate.edu; oryoungbirder at midvalleybirding.org
> Subject: [obol] Next Oregon bird results !
> 
> 24 birders cast 5 weighted votes each for their top five birds most likely
> to be added to the Oregon list.  I'll put these lists and some additional
> comments, including my personal Top Ten guesses, on my bird photo blog
> www.contrerasbirds.blogspot.com for easy future reference.
> 
> Comments on this list are welcome.
> 
> The top 10, with cumulated vote totals (left) and number of first-place
> votes (in parentheses right), are:
> 
>  30 Black Vulture (3)
>  26 Siberian Accentor (1)
>  26 White-eyed Vireo (3)
>  25 Black Skimmer (2)
>  20 Greater Shearwater (2)
>  18 Cave Swallow (2)
>  17 Lesser Nighthawk (1)
>  13 Common Greenshank (2)
>  13 Black-tailed Gull (2)
>  12 Gray-tailed Tattler
> 
> Dave Irons was the bellwether, no surprise, as four of his five are the top
> four on the list.  Others who have four in the top ten are Russ Namitz,
> Hendrik Herlyn, Tim Shelmerdine and me.  Naturally the next bird will be
> something none of us thought of, say, Ivory Gull....
> 
> Others receiving at least five points OR votes from at least two people,
> with their totals (and first-place votes), are:
> 
> 11   Fork-tailed Flycatcher
> 11   YC Nightheron (1)
> 10   Temminck's Stint
> 9    N Sharptail Sparrow (1)
> 8    BB Cuckoo
> 8    Craveri's Murrelet
> 8    Wood Stork (1)
> 7    Yg Vireo (1)
> 6    Bean Goose (1)
> 6    Mississippi Kite
> 5    Chimney Swift (1)
> 5    Great BB Gull
> 4    Great-cr Fly
> 4    Cassin's Sparrow
> 4    Eurasian Kestrel
> 4    Cerulean Warbler
> 2  Field Sparrow  
> 2  Dusky Warbler
> 
> The remaining species receiving votes are:
> 
> 4 Brown Shrike 
>  3 Sulphur-b Flycatch
>  3 Parkinson's Petrel
>  2 Far Eastern Curlew
>  2 Sky Lark  
>  2 Northern Hobby  
>  2 YB Magpie   
>  2 Great-winged Petrel
>  2 Am Oystercatcher
>  1 Yellow-bellied Fly
>  1 Dusky Thrush  
>  1 Xantus's Hummer 
>  1 Lesser Frigatebird
>  1 Least Storm-Petrel
>  1 Red-faced Warbler
>  1 Henslow's Sparrow
> 1  Ivory Gull
> 
> Species that I put on my original list of possibles but which received no
> votes for top 5 are:
> 
>  Common Pochard  
>  Common Crane  
>  Arctic Warbler  
>  Eyebrowed Thrush  
>  Bronzed Cowbird  
>  Baird's Sparrow  
>    
>  Records currently in circulation in the OBRC (most will probably be
> accepted) and which I therefore disqualified are:
> 
>  Magnificent Hummer
>  Ashy Storm-petrel 
>  BB Whistling-Duck 
>  Alder Flycatcher  
>  Black Rail
> 
> 
> -- 
> Alan Contreras
> EUGENE, OREGON
> 
> acontrer at mindspring.com
> www.OREGONREVIEW.BLOGSPOT.COM  Social Commentary
> www.CONTRERASBIRDS.BLOGSPOT.COM  Current Bird Photos
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
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